Bandwidth Demand Forecast for SA and Neighbouring States

The purpose of BMI-T’s bandwidth model is to assist in investment planning, by providing a quantification and forecast of the growth in demand for bandwidth at the access, long distance and international levels, both within South Africa, and between SA and its six adjacent neighbouring countries.

Objectives of the report

A published report provides highlights of the detailed bandwidth model (which is also used as a basis for customised consulting in this field, in which case it is also used for regional modelling within southern, eastern and west Africa). The model consists of in-depth demand estimation and forecasting, and a brief analysis of supply side considerations. It examines terrestrial links within South and Southern Africa in greater detail, with a particular focus on national long distance bandwidth requirements, and the competitive dynamics emerging on each of the major routes.

Research methodology

The report methodology encompasses a large, multi-dimensional model, which in turn is informed by extensive desk research. This is constructed on a bottom-up basis, starting with individual customer groups. BMI-T has developed and refined this model, and the Q3 2011 edition is further expanded from the Q4 2010 edition of the model (highlights of which were provided in the report entitled “Outlook for Terrestrial Fibre Optic Projects in South and Southern Africa, dated November 2010).

Market segmentations

• Bandwidth demand forecasts by customer group, access type and application
• National long distance and international bandwidth growth forecasts
• Supply side analysis

Key questions answered

• What are the current and likely future bandwidth requirements within in South Africa, and between SA and its immediate neighbours?
• How is this calculated and forecasted, by service, application and customer group? What are the drivers of the massive growth expected, and what factors must be considered when forecasting, allowing for diverging scenarios?
• Who are the leading players in respect of terrestrial cable development, and what is the competitive dynamic? Will there be an over-supply and what will the impact be?

Deliverables

• Report in PDF format

Consulting options

Clients are encouraged to engage directly with BMI-T for additional customised modelling in this field. This includes additional routes (outside of South Africa) and also wholesale layer and financial modelling.